We've all experienced it - a friend calls just as we are thinking of him, or a romantic partner has the same birthday we do. Some coincidences are small, and seemingly inconsequential, but others have the potential to change lives. What causes a coincidence to happen, and what does it mean? Is every coincidence meaningful? And what are the odds of a particular coincidence happening? This week we explore the nature of coincidence with scientists, psychotherapists, mathematicians, and people like you. Guests include: Jungian analyst and psychotherapist Robert Hopcke, who has authored books on coincidence and the related theory of synchronicity ("Coincidences are meaningful for what they tell us about ourselves"); cognitive scientist Josh Tenenbaum at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who studies how coincidences work in the brain ("They seem to be the source of some of our greatest irrationalities"); and statistician Karl Sigman at Columbia University, who computes the odds that coincidences will happen. The program also includes quirky first-person accounts of coincidence from writers, filmmakers, identical twins, and others, and from the producer of this show, who experienced an unusual coincidence while working on it. With commentary by John Hockenberry.

Our program opens with a brief montage of opinions about coincidence. Similar segments featuring first-person accounts of coincidence related to love, chance meeting, and family relationships will be heard throughout the program.

Our host, Dr. Fred Goodwin, begins with an essay in which he explores the mind's capacity to selectively "tune-in" to specific details and events, often leading us to see coincidence where others may not. Dr. Goodwin relates a coincidence that recently happened to him while at a conference with his wife. While the coincidence turns out to have a rational explanation, Dr. Goodwin acknowledges the personal importance which the event had for him. He concludes that the notion of coincidence cannot be dismissed out-of-hand, nor can it be scientifically verified. Coincidences serve to remind us both of how much we've learned about the mind and how many mysteries remain to be explained.

A first-person narrative from writer and filmmaker Phil Cousineau, produced by reporter Ellen Horne, follows Dr. Goodwin's essay. Cousineau offers thoughts on the relationship between coincidence and synchronicity and describes an unusual coincidence that led him back to his great passion - writing.

Dr. Goodwin's first guests are Josh Tenenbaum, a cognitive scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Robert Hopcke, a Jungian analyst, psychotherapist, and author based in the San Francisco Bay area. Tenenbaum studies cognitive development and how we learn from distinguishing patterns in our environment. Hopcke practices psychotherapy and has written about the theories of famed psychoanalyst Carl Jung, including the idea of synchronicity - or meaningful coincidence - in his book There Are No Accidents: Synchronicity and the Story of Our Lives. Tenenbaum and Hopcke talk with Dr. Goodwin about the different approaches to coincidence offered by scientific theory and the field of psychology. They also field questions from callers. Tenenbaum describes the way the brain searches for patterns in the world based on limited evidence and information. Sometimes, he says, we superimpose patterns which do not really exist; other times, the patterns or coincidental events which we see are real and lead to important scientific discoveries, such as the cycle of Haley's Comet or the cause of cholera.

Robert Hopcke explains Jung's theory of synchronicity, or meaningful coincidenc, and suggests that the meaning of a coincidence is subjective and can be evaluated only by the person experiencing it. Hopcke says that coincidences are important not for what they tell us about the world that is beyond our purview but for what they tell us about ourselves, our dreams, desires, and concerns.

To order Mr. Hopcke's book There are No Accidents: Synchonicity and the Story of Our Lives, click here.

To contact Dr. Josh Tenenbaum write to: Massachusets Institure of Technology, Computational Cognitive Science Lab, 3 Cambridge Center, MIT Building NE20-388, Cambridge, MA 02139. You can also find out more about him and his projects by visiting his website.

After a short break, we hear a brief, first-person account of familial coincidence involving twin sisters. Then, writer and long-time television producer Squire Rushnell shares a first-person account of the coincidence which led to his decades-long career in broadcasting. Rushnell calls such coincidences "God Winks," meant to reassure us as we travel along our life's path. He's written a series of books on the idea, starting with God Winks: How the Power of Coincidence Guides Your Life. Rushnell says it's important to realize that we're not alone on this journey, and, for him, coincidences prove that.

To order Squire Rushnell's book When God Winks: How the Power of Coincidence Guides Your Life, click here.

Next, The Infinite Mind's Deryl Davis reflects on the coincidence which occurred to him while working on this program. It involves an old movie, lots of phone calls, advice from a rabbi and a psychiatrist, and a decision to "surrender to the mystery."

Next, we hear a brief story involving first-person accounts of the role of coincidence in matters of love. After the montage, Dr. Goodwin talks with Karl Sigman, professor of engineering and co-director of the Center for Applied Probability at Columbia University. Dr. Sigman studies the likelihood that certain things will happen, including coincidence. He explains the science of computing probabilities, called probability theory, and gives an example of the mathematics involved. Dr. Sigman explains that the likelihood of coincidences happening is actually higher than most people would think. He cites the "Birthday Problem" famous among statisticians as an example of the high probability of coincidence: one need only gather 23 people in order to have a 50% probability that two of them will share the same birthday. While Dr. Sigman does not say that coincidences are meaningless, he believes that they do have rational explanations in terms of mathematic probabilities.

To find out more about Dr. Karl Sigman, visit Columbia University's School of Engineering and Applied Science at http://www.engineering.columbia.edu/ or you can write to Dr. Sigman at: Dr. Karl Sigman, Columbia University, Dept. of IEOR, Mudd building, 500, West 120th street, NY NY 10027.

Finally, commentator John Hockenberry offers a cynic's view on the phenomenon of coincidence, until he relates a striking one that touches on his own life. Was it real? Did it happen? he asks. Who cares! It makes a great story.

-- Deryl Davis

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